The challenge
YouGarden is an online garden center and direct-to-consumer home shopping platform. Having a complex product feed and varying product prices,
the company faced the challenge of maximizing product visibility within its Performance Max campaigns.
To enhance prioritization within campaigns, digital marketing agency Incubeta developed and implemented a proprietary "Enhanced Performance Max (ePerformance Max)" solution, which uses advanced clustering models to group products by characteristics and performance. Since an A/B split test was’t feasible for measuring the uplift, and seasonality also impacted any before versus after measurement, a robust statistical analysis was required to measure the impact on performance.
The approach
To validate the uplift created by this intervention, YouGarden turned to rigorous causal impact analysis methodologies, including Google’s Bayesian Time Series Modeling for Causal Impact Analysis and Autoregressive State-Space Modeling (MARSS) Time Series Modeling. The analysis focused on Performance Max revenue as the dependent variable, with control variables including organic search trends, branded traffic, and spend in other campaign types.
The team utilised Google’s Bayesian Time Series Modelling to validate the revenue uplift
The results
Using Google's Causal Impact Analysis, YouGarden could see a clear 8% revenue increase driven by the ePerformance Max intervention, with a posterior probability of a causal effect of 95%. This success allows the company to to pursue its business goals more effectively,
helping gain visibility for a broader range of products through its Performance Max campaigns.
